American Civic Life Survey 2024
3rd Edition | Fall 2024
Introduction
National poll from UT-Civitas Institute shows Americans see sky high stakes in the 2024 election
The Civitas Institute Poll, conducted from July 2-9, 2024, asked 1,200 Americans an array of questions about how things are going in the country, about the status of American democracy and capitalism, about security and immigration concerns, and about the 2024 election.
Note that this survey came before the June 27 presidential debate, the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Trump, and the July 15-18 Republican National Convention.
Here are the top four take-aways…
Key Takeaways
Number 1: Both Republicans and Democrats see extremely high stakes in this election, but GOPers are more enthused.
Seventy percent of Americans say they are either “extremely” or “very” interested in the upcoming election, and 67% say they are either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote. But the partisan split reveals worrisome news for the Democrats: 65% of Republicans are extremely interested in the race and 70% are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 52% and 57%, respectively, for the Democrats. In other words, there is a 13-point enthusiasm gap favoring the Republicans, and this was before the debate, assassination attempt, the RNC, and President Biden dropping out of the race.
One potential silver lining for the Democrats is that there is little daylight between partisans on the question of how much “the 2024 election matters for your life.” Sixty-five percent of GOPers say it will matter a great deal, but so do 64% of Democrats.
Perhaps more problematic—especially considering the events in Butler, Pennsylvania—is that partisans of both sides think that democracy is on the line in 2024. Seventy-one percent of Democrats say that electing Donald Trump will be the end of democracy in the United States. On the other side of the aisle, 58% of Republicans say that electing Joe Biden will be the end of democracy in the U.S.
“This is a difficult question for a pollster to ask,” says Government Department professor Daron Shaw, who directs the UT-Austin Civitas Poll. “On the one hand, you have an obligation to report what public opinion is. On the other hand, you do not want to be seen as normalizing extreme attitudes or behavior. In this instance, most everyone understands that politics these days are polarized, and our goal was to measure the extent to which people have accepted the elite conversation about the stakes of this election. Our data indicate that many partisans actually believe that the results of this election will determine whether we have a democracy moving forward.”
We asked respondents what they are most concerned about when they hear the phrase “end of democracy.”
- A little under four in ten (38%) said their main concern is a president using the powers of office to attack our rights and freedoms. Fifty-four percent of Democrats chose this response, as did 24% of Republicans.
- The next most common response was using the courts and legal system to remove political opponents from office or to keep them from running for election (14%). One quarter of Republicans selected this option.
- A little more than ten percent chose allowing non-citizens and ineligible people to vote; 22% of Republicans chose this.
- Ten percent selected the influence of big money in politics, including 9% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans.
And who is seen as the biggest threat to your personal freedoms? The president! Almost two in five said that they are “extremely” concerned that the president might take away their freedoms, including 44% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans. The Supreme Court comes in second place, with 29% saying they are extremely concerned (47% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans), followed by the U.S. Senate (21%), the U.S. House (20%), and, finally, state government (18%).
Number 2: Campus protests backfire?
Most Americans were paying attention to the conflicts and protests occurring on campuses across the United States in response to Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Just under one-third of respondents say they had read, seen, or heard “a lot” about the protests happening on campuses across the country in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Another 28% said they had read, seen, or heard “a moderate amount.” Roughly one-quarter said they were favorably inclined to wards the protests and protestors, 42% were unfavorably inclined, and 22% were neither favorable nor unfavorable.
Responses to the campus protests vary considerably by age. Among those under 30 years of age, 38% were favorable towards the protests, while 23% were unfavorable and 27% were neither favorable nor unfavorable. Among seniors, 14% were favorable, 66% were unfavorable, and 15% were neither favorable nor unfavorable.
Among those with a college or post-graduate degree, 31% were favorable, 44% were unfavorable, and 15% were neither favorable nor unfavorable. For those with a high school degree, 17% were favorable, 47% were unfavorable, and 23% were neither favorable nor unfavorable.
Americans generally regarded the response by college and university administrators to be either “too lenient” (33%) or “about right” (23%)—only 14% characterized them as “too harsh (30% said they did not know). The response to protestors by law enforcement was viewed similarly: 30% said it was too lenient, 25% about right, and 18% too harsh (27% said they did not know).
Number 3: Lots and lots of issues—not much confidence in institutions.
We asked Americans to rate the importance of twenty-three different issues, a far wider array than most other surveys. This might be why we find a slightly different rating of priorities than these other polls. At the top of the list, of course, there is inflation, with 67% rating the issue as “extremely” important. But next on the list is health care (61% extremely important), followed by crime (56%), criminal justice and criminal justice reform (56%), and then Social Security (55%). The fact that health care and Social Security rate among the top five issues is not what we expected, and perhaps indicates that Democrats (who voters tend to see as better able to manage these issues) are not as bad off as is sometimes assumed for the upcoming election.
The next five most highly rated issues are jobs and employment (52% extremely important), taxes (50%), border security (51%), education (51%), and immigration (49%).
Partisan differences with respect to issue priorities are stark. While 67% rate inflation as extremely important, 82% of Republicans give it that rating, compared to 55% of Democrats (70% of independents rate it as extremely important). On border security, we see a 48-point difference, as 79% of Republicans rate the issue as extremely important while 31% of Democrats do likewise. On climate change, there is a 44-point difference, as 59% of Democrats rate it as extremely important compared to 15% of Republicans.
Abortion rights are a centerpiece of Democratic messaging in 2024. Forty-one percent of respondents rate the issue as extremely important: 61% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans.
Although foreign policy issues have been in the news quite a bit this year, they do not garner importance ratings close to those of domestic issues. Twenty-nine percent say relations with China are extremely important. Twenty-seven percent say the Israel-Hamas conflict is extremely important. Twenty-six percent say the Ukraine-Russia war is extremely important. These issues rate, respectively, 20th, 22nd, and 23rd out of twenty-three issues tested.
Meanwhile, respondents continue to view key American institutions unfavorably, although only Congress and the news media has declined in sanding since our inaugural poll of April 2023. The U.S. Congress is viewed favorably by only 24% of Americans (26% viewed it favorably last year). The news media fare slightly better, with 28% viewing them favorably (down from 33% favorable in 2023). State and local governments score better, with 44% viewing state government favorably and 46% viewing local government favorably (compared to 41% and 46%, respectively, in 2023).
The U.S. Supreme Court, coming off a series of controversial June decisions, is viewed favorably by 42% of the public, which is an improvement from the 40% favorable rating registered in 2023.
Number 4: Media consumption and the age divide
We asked respondents to identify their main source of information about politics and the news of the day. Television remains the most common source of news (33%), followed by social media sites (27%), and news websites and apps (25%). These patterns conceal enormous differences by age, however. Among those under 30 years of age, 55% list social media as their main source of news, whereas 15% say TV. Among seniors, 55% say TV and 6% say social media.
When asked about specific news sources, among those who get their information from television, 37% identified Fox News as a main source (63% of Republicans), 31% said CNN (46% of Democrats), 21% said MSNBC (34% of Democrats), and 62% said local news (including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and independents).
Among those who prefer social media sites to get their news, 58% go to Facebook, 52% go to X/Twitter, 46% go to Instagram (51% of those under 30), 26% go to TikTok (31% of those under 30), 16% go to Reddit, and 10% go to LinkedIn.
For those who get their news mainly from news websites or apps, 40% said they mainly go to a local news site or app, 28% said Fox News (47% of Republicans), 38% said CNN, 24% said the New York Times, 17% said the Wall Street Journal, 17% said the Washington Post, and 8% said Breitbart.
Methodology
The Spring 2024 University of Texas at Austin Civitas Institute Poll was conducted July 2-9, 2024, by YouGov. It includes interviews with 1,200 adults nationwide. YouGov uses a unique methodology where a random sample of adult Americans is drawn, and then matched to participants from YouGov’s online panel. Currently, YouGov’s American online panel has over two million participants. Matching is based on several social and political characteristics, including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, residential location, and party identification. These matched respondents are then asked to complete the survey online. Results are weighted to subgroup population estimates based on the 2021 American Community Survey (conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau). The Civitas Poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points for all respondents. The error margins are larger for subgroups.